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The Map and the Territory 2.0: Risk, Human Nature, and the Future of Forecasting



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Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we canknow about economic forecasting and what we can't.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.






Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us?To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better. Economic risk is a fact of life in every realm, from home to business to government at all levels. Whether we're conscious of it or not, we make wagers on the future virtually every day, one way or another. Very often, however, we're steering by out-of-date maps, when we're not driven by factors entirely beyond our conscious control.The Map and the Territory is nothing less than an effort to update our forecasting conceptual grid. It integrates the history of economic prediction, the new work of behavioral economists, and the fruits of the author's own remarkable career to offer a thrillingly lucid and empirically based grounding in what we canknow about economic forecasting and what we can't.The book explores how culture is and isn't destiny and probes what we can predict about the world's biggest looming challenges, from debt and the reform of the welfare state to natural disasters in an age of global warming.No map is the territory, but Greenspan's approach, grounded in his trademark rigor, wisdom, and unprecedented context, ensures that this particular map will assist in safe journeys down many different roads, traveled by individuals, businesses, and the state.


The Map and the Territory 2.0 Risk Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting eBook Greenspan Alan Amazon.com.au Kindle Store. Read honest and unbiased product reviews from our users. the Territory Risk Human Nature and . The Map and the Territory 2.0 Risk Human Nature and the Future of 26 copies 1 review Capitalism in America An Economic History of the United States 23 copies Epilogue To The Age Of Turbulence 7 copies .


Territory

Greenspan had an unprecedented five terms as Chairman of the Federal reserve where he presided over a time of long expansions and short recessions. Everyday low . The Map and the Territory 2.0. The potential future effects of global climate change include more frequent wildfires longer periods of drought in some regions and an increase in the number duration and intensity of tropical storms. As I remember it he was very patiently trying to instruct me about how certain patterns of stock pricing behavior foretold future movements of the Dow Jones . X The Map and the Territory 2.0 Risk Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting Alan Greenspan Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and farreaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future and how it can predict it better. The Map and the Territory 2.0 Risk Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting Inglés Pasta blanda 28 octubre 2014 por Alan Greenspan Autor 3.8 de 5 . But the more we convince ourselves that were able to forecast with precision the riskier the world becomes. signed first edition Hardcover 2013. Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. damages or judgments of any nature whatsoever arising out of the use or misuse of the information contained in these Town Mapping pages. Greenspan is right that forecasting is human nature. It is an in depth exploration of the 2008 and subsequent financial problems and why the economic models failed to predict developments. Were The Map and the Territory Risk Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting Penguin Press 2013 written by anyone other than Alan Greenspan it would have had a hard time finding a publisher. Découvrez sur decitre.fr The Map and The Territory 2.0 Risk Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting par Alan Greenspan Éditeur Penguin Books .


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